Forecasting most lotteries worldwide at WebLotto.Org

Tarantula

Member
At the suggestion of a couple of members senior to me, I've started this thread. For those who haven't already read my posts, I'll summarize - if you're already familiar with what I'm doing then please bear with me.

I've am in the process of writing a program that attempts to forecast the lottery, I am currently forecasting for 68 lotteries around the world with a varying degree of success. I have setup a website which contains strictly my forecasts and past results where this information can be seen (text only - no advertising, no bull, just numbers).

So far this year I have picked 9 5/5 jackpots in a variety of US lotteries (at least 3 of these occured in the last 10 days). The best I've managed so far on a pick 6 lottery is 5/6, but I've only recently started looking at the pick 6 lotteries.

Before you ask - No, I have not hit a jackpot myself. I have picked 5/5 in the lottery I play once, however the system I played that day only provided me with a 4/5 win (for $750), and several lesser wins. I have missed 4/5 more times than I care to count, because I either chose not to play that drawing or played the wrong system. I am however still playing on my winnings.

I would like your assistance in providing feedback about the website, and my forecasts. I am specifically looking for feedback on the presentation, understandability and completeness of the data I am presenting as well as feedback on the quality of my forecasts.

I would also like anyone who has a favorite wheel system they would like to see used to send / post that system so I can include it in my forecasting - I have a limited number of wheels, and very few pick 7 wheels. It is in my plan to add more, but generating wheels is taking a back seat to everything else I'm doing right now.

In order to help understand my forecasts, here is a sample 6/49 forecast:

9 , 14 , 17 , 22 , 26 , 46 , 4 , 7 , 19 , 20 , 2 , 24 , 11 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 38 , 40 , 41 , 43 , 12 , 48 , 49 , 27 , 16 , 10 , 23 , 45 , 18 , 47 , 25 , 8 , 39 , 1 , 3 , 42 , 5 , 44 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 6 , 13 , 21 , 15

This is simply a ranked list of the numbers in the order that my program thinks they are likely to be drawn, so if your favorite system is to play a 10 number wheel, then the numbers you should use are:

9 , 14 , 17 , 22 , 26 , 46 , 4 , 7 , 19 , 20

Put them in your favorite system and go, or you can actually pick one of the wheel systems that I have included on my site and play them.

Things to keep in mind:

1 - currently there are approximately 50 variables for each lottery that I can change to alter the forecasts - right now most are using my "default" parameters and have not been optimized. I may add more of these variables as I determine the need in the future (I already have several planned, but not implemented yet).

2 - the more data I have for a given lottery, the better the forecasts will be - in some cases I have a limited amount of data (any lottery with less than 10 data records will have no forecasts), in any lottery that there are less than 30 drawings of data I cannot even begin to optimize the parameters. Also the more data I have, the longer the optimization process takes. If you would like to send data for your favorite lottery, I will add it to my database - if not, I'll continue to collect it 1 drawing at a time.

3 - watch the "Last Parameter Change" of your lottery to see how recently I've modified the parameters effecting the forecasts.

4 - the feedback form on my site is a one-way deal, if you expect a response - you should either post here, or send me email.

I would like to thank everyone in advance for any feedback - good, bad, or indifferent.
 

Irvin

Member
Hello Tarantula,

Can you please confirm how you would like the text format of the draws.

Date (MM/DD/YY), draw no, D1, D2,D3,D4,D5,D6,B1

Do you want the latest draw at the top of the page or bottom of the page?

Regards,

Irvin
 
Hi Tarantula,

How many tickets do you consider for a pick 5 lottery?

How many tickets do you consider for a pick 6 lottery?

I'm doing this question to know if your forecasts are above probability.
 

Tarantula

Member
Irvin,
The format you describe is good, draw no isn't required (I don't use it - I go by the date) - if included I can skip it. Latest results should be at the bottom. As long as it's something close I can massage it if necessary.

Grandmaster,
The exact number of tickets / drawing I generate varies with the lottery format, but it's approximately 2000 - 3000 total. I actually have 100 - 200 wheels that I am currently using anywhere from 6 - 600 tickets in the wheels (most came from books, a few I created myself, and several were generated by covermaster). I once created a 3400 ticket wheel as an experiment, but decided after a few drawings that it would only prove that I've lost my mind and make my database incredibly unwieldy(sp). I only keep the generated tickets in the database for a limited time (I think 16 drawings at this time).

In my personal play, I use a wheel from 6 up to 66 tickets - I've developed a particular attachment to a 14 number / 14 ticket wheel, but I'm working on coming up with one that's 20 tickets with partial coverage.

Above probability? I don't know for certain, depends on how you look at it - this is something that should be evaluated per lottery.

The benchmark (my simulator) that I have been using is comparing to a set of randomly generated numbers (not the ones you see on the site), my initial benchmark for all lotteries has been done based on what I would have forecasted for the history that I have going back looking at each drawing. The problem with this is that each time I run the simulation, the random numbers generated are different so my results vary. The more data I have, the better my simulation results are and also the longer it takes to run.

As another benchmark, I generate a set of random numbers at approximately the same time the forecast is generated (but I don't generate tickets for the random numbers - again due to database size). The results of these are available on the site for comparison to my actual forecast.

I am very interested in whatever results you find when attempting to determine if my forecasts are "above probability" - in any case where they aren't I can make adjustments to the parameters to hopefully resolve that situation. I should note that recently I've determined that some lottery forecasts are not "up to par", and I will be making changes to correct this (including some of the ones where I've picked a 5/5 ticket).

I should also note that I'm working on adding several different analysis for my forecasting.

Let me know if there's anything you'd like me to clarify.
 
Tarantula,

Do you think that using many wheels is better than the use of a single wheel with the same amount of tickets?

Do you tested before a single wheel with the same amount of tickets vs all your wheels to see the performance of both wheels?

Why many wheels are better than a single one?, by experience?

Sorry for many questions..

I looked at your website and watching your wheel section, I don't understand how you choose your wheel selection for a certain lottery..

Your best results are for pick 5, but we have to remember that 4/5 wins a fewer hundred and if we use your wheels we spend 2000-3000, only if we get 5/5 we win.
 

Tarantula

Member
Grandmaster,
No problem on the questions, sorry for the delay in the answers.

Yes I believe that one larger wheel would produce better results than many smaller wheels with the same number of tickets.

No I have not done that test, or any tests on wheel performance yet - but I am starting to look at wheel performance.

There is no logic for wheel selection other than if a wheel can be used for a certain lottery.

I do not expect that anyone will play all of the tickets I generate for a given lottery. If you play any of the numbers that I generate you should limit it to one or two of the wheels I have generated. My actual goal is to hit a second prize within a limited budget.

I am lucky here, I have one of the better paying pick 5's - 4/5 pays $750.

My best results are with pick 5 because that is where I started (and I'm still not really happy with them, there's a lot of room for improvement), with time the pick 6's will come as well.
 
Hi Tarantula,

I do not expect that anyone will play all of the tickets I generate for a given lottery. If you play any of the numbers that I generate you should limit it to one or two of the wheels I have generated. My actual goal is to hit a second prize within a limited budget.

That's my goal too.

I am lucky here, I have one of the better paying pick 5's - 4/5 pays $750.

Very lucky! Texas Cash 5 if you get 4/5 you obtain $100 to $500, it depends.

My best results are with pick 5 because that is where I started (and I'm still not really happy with them, there's a lot of room for improvement), with time the pick 6's will come as well.

Good luck with your pick numbers!!:agree2:
 

barge

Member
Hi Tarantula,

The UK 5/34/14 thunderball pays £5000(about $9000)
for 5 correct numbers, £250000 if you add the Thunderball. I play with a view to getting 4 or 5 numbers from the 34, ignoring the T-ball. Will you consider trying this one?


Barge
 

Tarantula

Member
turbuch2,
I plan to respond to your question in detail later tonight when I can put some time into it.

barge,
Yes, absolutely! Is that the same "Thunderball" who's results are listed at alllotto.co.uk? Is the format 5/34 + 1/14? Can you send me the last 10 - 50 drawings of data?
 

barge

Member
To answer your question, yes, but www.merseyworld.com is far superior for all uk lotto archives. They can be downloaded from day one as text, excel, csv etc

I will post the dbase on your site. as it is too big for this one.

Barge
 

turbuch2

Member
Whats a 5/5 lottey

How many Nos do you have to pick from ?
Whats the jackpot?

could you name a lottey thats 5/5 ??

UK has Thunder Ball But its
Choose 5 from 34 PLUS 1 from 14. Jackpot is £250,000


Thanks.
 
turbuch2,

I think from the above post you have to buy 2000 - 3000 tickets combined in many wheels and with a bit of lucky you could get 5/5 Pick 5 (5/39, 5/45, 5/50, etc.) , 5 CORRECT numbers.
 

Tarantula

Member
turbuch2 said:
Tarantula

What is your forecasting method??

Thanks

This may give you more detail than you want, but here goes:

Each number starts with a weight of 0.

I then perform (currently 9, but I'm in the process of adding 6 more) analysis of the history of that lottery and depending on the results of the analysis add or subtract a variable number of points. I have everything setup as variables so that it can work with any lottery, and each lottery can have it's own set of parameters.

The numbers are sorted with the heavy (highest) numbers first.

In some cases the numbers are then "shuffled" placing the highest and the lowest at the begining with all of the middle numbers being placed at the end. I'm not going to explain the "shuffle" - but just for reference it is something that does affect the forecast.
 

Tarantula

Member
turbuch2 said:
Whats a 5/5 lottey

How many Nos do you have to pick from ?
Whats the jackpot?

could you name a lottey thats 5/5 ??

UK has Thunder Ball But its
Choose 5 from 34 PLUS 1 from 14. Jackpot is £250,000


Thanks.

I think you're looking at this wrong it's not a 5/5 lottery but a simulated 5/5 ticket picked.

I know of no 5/5 lotteries - every ticket would appear to be a winner.

Working on Thunderball now, but haven't had time to look at the results.
 

Tarantula

Member
turbuch2 said:
Tarantula


you said you've got 5/5 several times!

How many tickets do you have to buy to do this?


thanks

As of this moment, 11 times this year:

22 Jan 05 - Virginia Cash 5
05 Feb 05 - Pennsylvania Cash 5
21 Feb 05 - Missouri Show Me 5 Paydown
03 Apr 05 - DC Hot 5
16 Apr 05 - Connecticut Cash 5
21 Apr 05 - Michigan Fantasy 5
24 Apr 05 - California Fantasy 5
28 Apr 05 - California Fantasy 5
28 Apr 05 - Wisconsin Badger 5
07 May 05 - Indiana Lucky 5
20 May 05 - Georgia Fantasy 5

How many tickets depends on which system you play - your mileage may vary, you can look at the details of the latest 5/5 on my system now - it will be deleted relatively soon (I think right now I'm only keeping 15 drawings worth of ticket data, the database is extremely large as it is).

In the case of my most recent jackpot - Georgia Fantasy 5 (5/39), the forecast was not really that good (the way I view things). 55 wheels were used generating 3441 tickets (smallest wheel 4 tickets, largest wheel 563 tickets). The 5/5 ticket was in a system that used the first 22 numbers of the forecast in 205 tickets. The remaining wheels, did as follows - 2 had 4/5, 17 had 3/5, 26 had 2/5, 6 had 1/5, and 3 had 0/5.

On the day that I picked the Missouri jackpot, I played a system that used 14 tickets and had a 4/5 for $750. That was a much better forecast.

In some of the jackpot picks I had all 5 numbers within the first 12 numbers of the forecast.

I keep a limited amount of tickets stored in the database to keep the size of the database down.
 
Each number starts with a weight of 0.

I then perform (currently 9, but I'm in the process of adding 6 more) analysis of the history of that lottery and depending on the results of the analysis add or subtract a variable number of points. I have everything setup as variables so that it can work with any lottery, and each lottery can have it's own set of parameters.

The numbers are sorted with the heavy (highest) numbers first.

In some cases the numbers are then "shuffled" placing the highest and the lowest at the begining with all of the middle numbers being placed at the end. I'm not going to explain the "shuffle" - but just for reference it is something that does affect the forecast.

Hi Tarantula,

Recently, I am using a very similar strategy of "weight" to predict numbers, the program gives me the numbers by weight according to 5 different factors..

Then after the analysis I could choose my numbers.

Sometimes in a 6/49 lotto 4 or 5 wining numbers are in the first 15 - 22 lines, other the winning numbers are in the last 15 -22 lines. Few times the winning numbers are in the center in a range of 15 - 22.

Normally the first 5 numbers of next draw appear in the first 31-33 or the last 31-33 numbers. It depends on the settings.

I know prediction is the most difficult part.

Good luck!
 

Tarantula

Member
Henry's Feedback.

June 4th Canada lotto 649 draw, you forecast all 6 in the first 14 numbers. Amazing.
Henry
05-Jun-05 01:08 PM

Henry,
Thanks for pointing it out - it slipped by me completely. For that drawing 89 wheels were generated - 2 had only 2 numbers, 35 had 3 numbers, 43 had 4 numbers, and 9 had 5 numbers.

Although I am dissapointed that I had no 6/6 tickets - has anyone got a reasonable wheel that would have provided 6/6 given the forecast?
 

Brad

Member
Holy Cash Cow, Batman!!

The Pot was $3.8M+ on the 4th and nobody won it then!! :eek:

To guarantee 5/6 from 14 one would need about 100 lines, and other than a full wheel 6/6 is tough. Luck would be in play here unless one had some sure-fire DNs to reduce the lines.

Good picking Spidy!! :agree:


Cheers
 

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