Flipper wants help from the boys!!

[flipper]

OK. I'm really screwed up with these databases.I am playing the 6-49 this way: I play a series of consecutive numbers on each line. Only one set on each line.

My next batch of numbers all start with number 1. No consecutive numbers on these lines.

My last batch is about 5 to 7 lines of Quik-pik to cover the times when the delta of 1 does not appear.

We all know that the delta number of 1 is on 85-90% of all winning tickets. At least that's what it says on the delta website. They did a study on the Michigan 49 and the delta number of 1 was always there.

My question is this--from what I've read from the pros like Gilles, Alien and Peter, it seems that in the long run that all quik-piks will give you the same chance as the delta numbers.Is this true??

Question #2-When a number is cold and has not hit for a long time, I feel that it should be played until it wins. The reason here is that if we played 100 million lines, when the smoke cleared, each number would be there the same number of times.So, why do we turn our back on a cold number?? Aren't they the ones to play??

Question # 3--Is it not better to play all the numbers say, 5 times than to play 12 numbers 56 times?? What if the 12 numbers don't come up?? At least when you play all the numbers, they have to show up somewhere on your tickets.

Question #4-Would the following not be the best way to go?? Forget about the past draws completely. Then play all the numbers on various lines, but do it so that no line will ever have the same 3 numbers on it.
Example as follows:
Line 1 could be: 4,8,16,29,33,47
Line 2 could be: 4,16,31,34,45,49

So, line 2 as shown would have only 2 numbers from line 1. This would space out the numbers nicely.A jackpot would be easier to get than playing the same 4 numbers in line 2 that were in line 1. So, where are we on this?? I have no idea of databases. I know how I want to play the numbers, but have no idea of how to group them.

Am I to continue on with the delta numbers? The delta website tells me yes. But the database boys tell me no! I still am very committed to not changing numbers according to past draws.

On tonight's 6-49 I have about 50 lines going as noted above.Am I in error on this??
Or should we all say #### it and play quik-piks? I have the money to play, but don't want to waste it. Are all lotteries a waste of money?? I would like to hear from the regular crew. As it stands now, 45 of my 50 lines have a delta of 1. The delta website says the delta number of 1 should be on most of your tickets.They are on mine(45 of 50 lines.)

If I could get a printout of a database where lots of lines are played, but each line has only 2 numbers ever played on any other line, that seems logical to me. Throw in the delta number of 1 before you start to make it even better.

So, here would be 2 good lines to play(from my database in my brain)
Line #1: 1, 9,12,23,35,37(has a delta number of 1)

Line #2: 9,12,13,20,34,36 (has a delta of 1)

Please note that on line 2, only 2 numbers can be used from line number 1. The 2 numbers being used once again on line 2 are the 9 and the 12. If one of you brainy birds can come up with this scenario, you'll be onto something, in my humble opinion.

I would like to hear from you guys to tell me what you think. Please note that in this method, any draws in the past do not count as you are playing all 49 numbers, anyway.

 

[Snides]

Originally posted by flipper:

Question # 3--Is it not better to play all the numbers say, 5 times than to play 12 numbers 56 times?? What if the 12 numbers don't come up?? At least when you play all the numbers, they have to show up somewhere on your tickets.

For now I'll just try to answer this question. I'll review the others and see what i come up with.
True enough, if you play 12 numbers on 56 tickets and you only get 2 winning numbers, you'll be a little upset. But if you play 12 numbers on 56 tickets and manage to get 4 winning numbers (without the bonus) in those 12, depending on how you wheeled them you could get 1-6 4 number wins and 10 or more 3 number wins, which brings you, i'll guesstimate this at 6 X $70 and 10 X $10 or around $520 which translates to a 10-fold increase in your investment.
playing the other way, with only 2 numbers the same on repeating tickets wouldn't give you as many (if any) multiple wins. yes, maybe there is a better chance at going for the jackpot.. I havn't confirmed that yet, i'll hafta try to figure that one out.

So to sum it up, it depends on what your goal is, to hit the jackpot? or to supplement your income by doubling or more your original investment..

 

[SillyAlien]

Flipper,

It is true, in the long run, in the very-very long run, quick-picks give you the same number distribution and odds as delta numbers as well as any other handicapping method out there. The answer to most of your questions lies in exactly the opposite end of the scale. Everyone (I hope) is interested more in the short trends.
We are all studying past databases and old histories only to evaluate short-term trends during those periods and hoping to "recreate" history in future draws. That is why while "cold" numbers ARE important, "hot" numbers are even MORE important, because they are the ones that define these short term trends. This is why Picards numbers had the hottest winning streak I have seen in the last 2 years.(Very much worth having another look at it Flip)
It would be wonderful to combine the delta and 2-peat to write your tickets, but I pity your wallet. Perhaps that would be the way to go if you had a large group of people in your pool, and therefore the money to be able to afford a good wide spread like that. But if you are all alone, you'll have to do some trimming to the ticket file, probably by applying some root-sum filters, and then you're back to square one again and your win-guarantee just took a kick to the shins.
Speaking of back to square one, I hope that at least one of us doesn't have to go there after tonight's draw. History dictates, however, that we will probably "see" each other again tomorrow. Then it's back to the drawing boards for everyone here my friend.

Good luck to everyone here tonight. Trust your gut Flip, but keep your options open buddy.

 

[Snides]

I did a delta run through my computer and although i didn't thouroughly read the delta website, if i was even on the right site, it seemed to say that the delta's should be from 1-15 with no deltas higher than that. When i ran it through the puter it came up with several that were higher, i see plenty of 16's 17's there's a 26, 25 21 24, and check this one draw out (sorry i don't have the draw # but it's abround 100-200 draws ago) this is the delta numbers for it; 38 5 1 1 1 1. Certainly a rare occurence, you won't see that again for a long time..
So if i'm right in that the delta system is supposed to be limited to 1-15 then I'd be inclined to think it's a load of crap with all these numbers above 15 that are showing up. Not trying to put you down or anything, if you're happy with it, do it..

 

[flipper]

Snides, thsnks for your input.I see by the results that there was no delta of one (1). So, even without checking my tickets, I know I did not win the jackpot.
I'm wondering is it back to square one for me? Of course, this is only one draw!!!!

Snides, you are right; all delta numbers are to be from 1 to 15 on your lines.That is what I was trying to do. I was following that train of thought.

Snides, one could take the position that when you had high delta numbers on a winning ticket, would this not be perhaps the 10% of tickets that show a high delta number over 15??

[This message has been edited by flipper (edited June 14, 2001).]

[This message has been edited by flipper (edited June 14, 2001).]

 

[GillesD]

Many questions but I will try to answer some of them, but I am not a pro just somebody that likes to play around with numbers.

1 - Your statement about deltas of 1 almost always appearing is quite wrong. Up to now in Lotto 6/49, deltas of one have appearer in 44.4% of the draw, quite far from the 85-90% you quote.

2 - To me, choosing deltas numbers and quick piks are the same; may be the program generating quick pik, use delta numbers to generate the combinations. Who knows?

3 - As I always say. Once the balls get rolling, do you think they know past results and they say between themselves something like: Hey, number 31 you are hot get down again. Past results has no effect on future draws but on the long run (very very long run) it will come out even.

 

[Dennis Bassboss]

Originally posted by GillesD:
Many questions but I will try to answer some of them, but I am not a pro just somebody that likes to play around with numbers.

1 - Your statement about deltas of 1 almost always appearing is quite wrong. Up to now in Lotto 6/49, deltas of one have appearer in 44.4% of the draw, quite far from the 85-90% you quote.

2 - To me, choosing deltas numbers and quick piks are the same; may be the program generating quick pik, use delta numbers to generate the combinations. Who knows?

3 - As I always say. Once the balls get rolling, do you think they know past results and they say between themselves something like: Hey, number 31 you are hot get down again. Past results has no effect on future draws but on the long run (very very long run) it will come out even.

In french your last line means "La loi des grands nombres" or for a translation the law of the many numbers. You are not a pro you are saying! You are a very good statistician as far as I'm concerned!
Always looking forward for your post!
But when you mentionned that the computer generator for random tickets might use the delta to mix it, I fell down on my back ,because it would be like tricking the dice and automatically you wind up with something other for your population of numbers than a normal distribution!
And from that point on you would get extreme results of no significances but certainly no random results! Think about it!
Like to hear more from you on this!

 

[Snides]

Originally posted by flipper:
Snides, one could take the position that when you had high delta numbers on a winning ticket, would this not be perhaps the 10% of tickets that show a high delta number over 15??

10% is close flipper, I'm showing a total of deltas higher than 15 to be 857. Again, I'm not including the bonus in that number. SO for 1814 draws at 6 delta numbers each, that translates to 857/10890, or 7.86 percent.
I seem to remember someone on here posting that a good filter for wheeling would be 1-21. By now including this delta idea, one could decrease that filter to 1-15 and still retain a 92% accuracy.

[This message has been edited by Snides (edited June 15, 2001).]

 

[GillesD]

Dennis, I sure hope you are not very tall when you fell on your back.
But if you use an exponential distribution to generate delta numbers (between 1 and 44) then use the 6 deltas mixed randomly to generate the 6 numbers for a combination, I am quite sure that the distribution of numbers will be quite normal if you generate enough combinations.
Sure this will mean that some combinations will have to be discarded (all those with numbers higher than 49).
I also never said this is the way quik piks are generated but who knows. A programmer's mind is sometimes quite hard to understand and the manner one can achieve his goals will vary quite a bit.
I do no not know if you have looked at the distribution of delta numbers but it is as near as possible to an exponential distribution, even with as low as 1815 combinations.