Final Results 2014 Number-Picker's Challenge

Icewynd

Member
The 2014 Number-Picker’s Challenge has finally come to an end, and I know that you are all on the edge of your seats to hear the name of the winner.

Several players predicted only once and scored brilliantly on that one draw, however, consistency over the long-run is clearly a better measure of number-picking skill. Based on this criterion, the winner of the challenge is:

:beer: Frank :beer:
Congratulations, Frank! :king: You have convincingly demonstrated your skill in picking lottery numbers over a large number of draws! Well done!

3 members participated regularly. For this group I have listed below the names, number of draws played, number of prections made (draws x 20), number of correct predicitons, number of times the player matched 5 or more of the winning numbers (including bonus), and percentage of hits (correct predictions divided by total predicitons)

Frank 100 2000 293 8 14.7%
Icewynd 105 2100 305 8 14.5%
Niteowl 75 1500 200 7 13.3%

Another group of members participated semi-regularly. Below are their statistics.
Jol 43 860 130 3 15.1%
Lottery Hits 39 780 118 5 15.1%
Ramijami 40 800 114 6 14.3%
Blitzed 44 880 123 2 14.0%
Bloubul 38 760 105 2 13.8%

The final group of members participated in only one or a few draws.
Savagegoose 1 20 5 1 25.0%
Winalot2007 1 20 5 1 25.0%
Madam 4 80 13 0 16.3%
Patron 2 40 6 0 15.0%

The most sucessful way to pick numbers over the long-term, however, turned out to be the set of random numbers that were genereated for each draw.

Random 105 2100 327 14 15.6%

It seems that randomness is really the best way to deal with randomness, altough 105 draws certainly is not sufficient to make a final judgement on that question.

Again, thanks to everyone for their participation. It has been most interesting.

Good luck!
:thumb:
 

Icewynd

Member
As usual, all the tabs have gotten skewed above. If anyone is interested, you can see the properly formatted document here:

https://www.mediafire.com/?82w0d627xbb6b4p

Also, please feel free to ask any questions that I may not have addressed above.

Good luck!
:thumb:
 

Frank

Member
Thank you Icewynd for that comprehensive analysis of results. Whilst I'm pleased I got the highest score from the short list of regular players , it is a sobering thought that random numbers came out best despite everyone's best efforts. Over a longer period things may have been different, but it looks like we all still have work to do to beat random numbers.
Does your scoresheet calculate the average number of hits per draw actually played for each player? I seem to recall we were trying to beat 2.857.
 

Icewynd

Member
The overall average of hits was 2.9, or 2.91 if you add in the hits for the Random numbers. So we beat it, just!

Good luck!
:thumb:
 

Icewynd

Member
Frank said:
it is a sobering thought that random numbers came out best despite everyone's best efforts. Over a longer period things may have been different, but it looks like we all still have work to do to beat random numbers.

The randomly generated numbers started the year with a real hot streak, averaging 3.46 hits per draw in the first quarter of the year and 3.2 hits per draw in the first half of the year. The last half of the year was average.

I suspect that, evening out over hot and cold streaks, random numbers would be exactly average.

Good luck!
:thumb:
 

Frank

Member
I was hoping the figures on an individual basis were available. The score for random is not part of our efforts, so should not be incorporated into anyone else's results, surely. The whole point is that we are trying to beat the statistical norm. Yes random this time beat it, but some of us may not have?
 

Frank

Member
patron said:
Good job frank...
Are you going to make the same thing for this year?
Hi Patron, and thanks. I'm not sure I understand the question unless you mean am I going to get the same score ? I'm going to use the same methods, theres plenty of room for tweaking, so I hope I can do better in the future ! :)
 

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