Excel Breakdown of Frequency and Games Out for Pick 3

AllenB

Member
Pick 3 System Based on Hits and Games Out.

The 1000 possible Straight Triads (ST) are reduced to the 220 Root Box Triads (RBT) (order s-l). This means that from Left to Right the first number is the lowest of the 3, The second is Equal to or greater than the First, and the Last digit is equal to the Second or is the largest of the 3. From the 220 all 1000 ST can be Generated by changing the Order.
The system is Based on The number of times a Root Box Triad has hit (H) and the number of games since it’s last hit (O).
The Draw Data for this application can be downloaded in Numerical Order Which is the Root Box Triad sequence. My system works from the Draw Order Download and convert each Draw to RBT. That way I can look at the Straight order (L-M-H) history to try to convert the extracted Root Box Triads to Straight Triads based on past patterns. LMH here is based only on the relationship of the drawn numbers.
The File contains all of the past Draws for the Game being studied. In California there is an assigned Game Number. Other States Use Dates only so multiple Daily drawings need to be converted to a Game Number Sequence for simplifying some of the calculations.
In a column of the Sheet, Calculate the number of times the RBT has Hit prior to the Draw using the Countif Function. The Range is the previous draw to the First Actual Draw and the “what” is the Current RBT. In an adjacent Column calculate the Frequency by dividing the Hits by the number of games that precede the Current Draw. In another column Calculate how many Games since the RBT Hit (Out) by using the Match Function. The “What” is the Current RBT, The Range is the previous Draw to the First Draw, and the match is exact. In another column divide the Out by the Frequency (O/F) expressed as %.
On another Sheet create a Table of all 220 Root Box Triads in Ascending Order. In separate columns, Calculate the current Number of Hits to Date (including the Current Game), The Frequency to Date and the Games Out for Each RBT. Next calculate the Current O/F for Each RBT. The Filters used from here are the Hits and the Out / Frequency.
The Basic Idea is to “Guess” the Number of Hits and the O/F for the Next Draw and then extract those RBT’s that match both; however, at this point you have more choices to pick from than even the 1000 choices to get a Straight. Limit the choices by Grouping the Hits and O/F into Zones. Create Zones of 10 Hit sequences by using the Formula =TRUNC(F1,-1)/10. (F11 is the cell containing the Hit). For California At Game #13911 Hits for the 220 RBT Ranges from 11 to 102. That Creates 10 Zones (Example Zone 4 includes all Hits from 40 to 49). Charts of the previous 100-300 Games show Definite Bias. For Ca. Zones 8,4,3,7 dominate. This dominance is related to the Changing Inventory of RBT’s in these Zones at each Game. Zone 8 has hit in 33% of the Last 300 Games and has a 26.8% of the Current Inventory. Looks like a 6.2% advantage to Me although I have not analyzed the Inventory changes over the period. Zone 7 has Hit in 18.7% vs 11.8% of Inventory 6.8% advantage. Zone 4 has hit in 15.7% vs 20.9% of Inventory 5.8% negative, Zone 9 has hit in 14% with 9% of Inventory 4.9% advantage, Zone 6 hit in 4% vs 2.7% of inventory 1.3% advantage. The advantages are changing as the Inventories migrate upward and move to the next Zone.
Grouping the Zones into Blocks 1 (1-4), 2 (5-7), 3 (8-10) reduces the “Guess” to 1 of 3. Here you see the Dominance of Block 3 with many consecutive games falling in said Block.
The Out / Frequency (O/F) Ranges from about 1% to over 200%. There are 20 Zones. Zone 1 includes 10%-19%.....Zone 20 includes all over 200%. Charts of these Zones are much more Random and at this point include to many options. I have not done an inventory analysis to look for advantages, if they exist. Dividing the Zones into 4 Blocks: 1 (1-5), 2 (6-10), 3 (11-15), 4 (16-20) reduces the options to 4. Charts are simplified; but still appear very random.
Selecting Root Box Triads for the Next Game is Done by Selecting 1 of the 3 Hit Blocks and 1 of the 4 O/F Blocks. There is an 8.3% chance of getting this right on a random selection basis; however, Charts show trends that “improve” the odds. Block 1 tends to dominate with several series of consecutive hits. I am still studying these trends. Tracking Followers looks like it can improve success or at the least give me another Thing to Graph and “Filter” with. For Ca Game #13912 the Hit Block Was 1 and the O/F Block was 1. There are 22 RBTs that are in both Blocks for this Game. So an “8.3%” chance yields a 10% probability of Success. In money terms a $22 bet would have returned $213 (an unusually large amount for Ca. has a variable prize). The Current Chart shows that the last 3 games fell in Block 1. That has happened 5 times in the past 100 games, so I might have eliminated it. Game 13912 is the 4th game in a row falling in Block 1.
I have run a few automated Forward Tests from Game 13912 Setting the Blocks in Various Combinations. No single combination produces a net profit. I am playing around with a few ideas that try to switch blocks based on formulas using the Ranking of the possible Followers or based on some previous count, to try to find something that can predict the Next Zone. So far, and probably always, the cumulative net will be Negative; but you never know. I am hoping that Zone Selection based on an informed successful “Guess” will produce a net Gain.
There are some observations regarding Doubles that are a little bit puzzling to need be investigated. Some Block Combinations produce only doubles. The Game Data Allows one to Measure Game Blocks that have Completed a Cycle where all of the 220 RBTS have been drawn. It also allows one to measure the completion percentage of each new Cycle Starting point to the present. A New Cycle starts whenever a number is drawn for a second time in the current cycle.
OK Enough.
I am curious what You All think about this. I apologize if this has been discussed before. I am new to the Forum and have not yet learned how to search its Archives.
 

Icewynd

Member
So, what you are doing is counting the hits of each of the box combos (220). What period are you using to calculate frequency? Over the entire history of the game, or some prior period like a year?

I'm not quite getting the idea of hits and OF being combined into "Zones". What is in cell F1 in your formula?

You may find the following post from the archives to be of interest:
http://www.lottoforums.com/lottery/threads/12962-When-is-a-Number-Due-to-Hit?
 

AllenB

Member
Hits and Frequencies are over the entire Game history.
Hit Zones are 10 consecutive values starting with 0,10,20,30,etc. For Example Zone 4 would include all combos with hits from 40 to 49.
F1 in the formula is a Hit count for a combo. You can also use the Round Function =Round(F1,-1)/10 to get the same answer.
In CA3 Hits vary from 17 to 102 yielding 10 Zones 1-10. Ont3 hits range from 3 to 44 yielding 4 Zones 0-4. For Ca3 I divide the Hit Zones into 3 Blocks. Block 1 is Zones 1-3, Block 2 is Zones 4-6, Block 3 is Zones 7-10. I have not done this for Ont3 because there are only 4 Zones at present.
O/F (Out/Frequency) Zones are similarly Zoned. Zone 0 includes 1%-9%, Zone 1 10%-19%, etc. Here there are 20 Zones. Zone 20 includes any O/F greater than or equal to 200%. These are divided into 4 Blocks. Block 1 includes Zones 0-5, Block 2 6-10, Block 3 11-15, Block 4 16-20.
Placing this data in the Game Data, Charting Each allows you to look back at the very prominent in fact dominant trends. The Excel Sheet lets me Guess Specific Zones or Blocks for the Next Game and then Extract the Combos that match each Filter.
IceT, I Emailed you a "shaky" version of the Excel file a while back. If you got it, take a look and tell me what you think. I have a more advanced version for Ca3 that could be converted.
Thanks or the questions.


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Icewynd

Member
Thanks for your response. That helps clarify things. Yes, I got the file. Very interesting stuff. I plan to go back to it today to fully understand all that you are doing there.
 

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