Decoding A Function For Lottorey

P

patron

Member
Hello to all...
There is a Greek site that analyze statisticaly all the lottery games in Greece. www.anendotos.gr As in Greek if you want try to translate it with google translate if someone are interested.
Use this site... http://itools.com/tool/google-translate-web-page-translator

I will give you some guidence to see what i'm looking for....
At the home page there is a Green banner with options. " home Games OPAP etc"
Click at games opap and at the banner click Extra 5...
at the extra5 page, left of the page are the options click at the first (under home). Problably you will not see any letter but nevertheless click on it, and again at the First option at the pop up menu...

Choose any Number you want and hit the right button "επεξεργασια"
You can choose as many as you like, but with one Number is easier.

Let me translate the columns to you....

Επιτυχιες - Winnings
Κανον (Κανονικοτητα) - Thats the probability (1/p) of the outcome
Εμφ (Εμφανισεις) - appearence (out of the Number of draws)
Εμφ κάθε ποτε - appearence every (total draws/appearance)
Καθ (Καθηστερηση) - Delay
Καθ Max - Max Delay
Βαρος - Lets call it weight.... This is what i was trying to decode....
As this value is higher the greater the changes of coming at the next draw.
if the number is in black BOX means that is due.
If the Number is yellow in a black BOX means that has exceed its probability
If the Number is Red in a black BOX means that has exceed its max delay.

So do you have any idea how this Number been generated?
I will try to make a spreedsheet with values for 100 draws just to see whats happening...
The site is very succesive in Greece and especialy for kino...
Please let me know if someone is interested...

Patron...
 
P

patron

Member
If you download the file look at the chart that i've made....
Lets make some assumptions....

I think the function consist of 2 parts....

1) If we have a hit the function take 4 draws to diminish
The same implies if we have 3 or 4 hits in a row, again will take 4 draws to diminish...
 
P

patron

Member
Probably its easier if we use excel macro to make the formula, as it diminish after 4 draws.
I can think of an equation that works only for 4 hits....

But again the question is how this 2,19 (which could be between 2,180001 - 2,194449) is came from....
 
Frank

Frank

Member
I've tried to view the page you describe but have failed to find it. There is no pop up menu for me, but then my browsers are well protected, so I dont see what you see. I did at some point see some table to do with Extra 5 that looks nothing like you have on your spreadsheet. From what I saw, get the impression that this extra 5 is a 5/35 lottery. Correct me if I'm wrong. If it is I don't understand why in your spreadsheet you show values for 1/p of 1.16667. This would mean p is 0.85714. For a 5/35 lottery p is 1/7 = 0.142857143 and 1/p is 7. I suspect your 2.19 is related to probabilities so this is very important. Have I got the wrong end of the stick here ?
 
P

patron

Member
Hey Frank
Your calculations are correct... It's 5/35 lottery...
The calculations that you made are ablolutly correct...
for o hit is p = 0.85714
for 1 hit is p = 0.14285
I've choose for 1 Number the table to make the calculations easier...
But i've still i haven't manage to found out where this 2,19 come from...
and as you mention it's really important Number...
I've tried almost everything i could think of with calculation of distribution (normal, binomial, exponential, poisson etc.) and i couldn't come close to this Number....
 
P

patron

Member
UPDATE OF FUNCTION.......

So far we have......

W(x) = ((total appearernce)/(total tries))*f(x)

where f(x) is a unknown function, but i'm certain that consist of 2 parts as it's second part diminish after 4 runs and after that Live the 1st part with value of 2,19.....
Another option could be that f(x) will be like (2,19 + g(x)) with the same things implies as above....
 
P

patron

Member
Frank
If we manage to decript the function i'm certain that it will implies to all lotto games of the World, what ever they are....
If you could see that site you will understand that it uses the same function for lotto 6/49, joker 5/45 +BB. Extra 5 5/35, kino etc....
even for scores for sports betting....
 
Frank

Frank

Member
patron said:
Frank
If we manage to decript the function i'm certain that it will implies to all lotto games of the World, what ever they are....
If you could see that site you will understand that it uses the same function for lotto 6/49, joker 5/45 +BB. Extra 5 5/35, kino etc....
even for scores for sports betting....
Click to expand...
If you are saying that its 2.19 used for ALL types of lottery regardless of how many balls in the pool and regardless of how many are drawn, then this function is not related in any way to the probability of a ball being drawn in future draws. Surely it CANNOT be the same number (2.19) for different lottery types if it were probability based.
The questions are:_
why do they create this final weighting number?
What is a user supposed to do with this number anyway ?
The answer to where it comes from is wrapped up in why it exists in the first place.
 
P

patron

Member
Hey Frank...
I'm not saying that 2,19 is constant...
it changes as the probability changes....
2,19 is for our case that we are examining....
It will defendly change if we pick more numbers.....
i haven't check for more numbers...
i will do it and i will post my findings.....
 
P

patron

Member
Hey to all

I found the function for the initial values for each probability..... at last...
so we have....
Q(p) = 2,5*p^2
that is for the first draw only....
mayde it's the first of the two parts of the equation....
Frank....
The base number of 2,19 may not be.... will see...

Patron
 
P

patron

Member
UPDATE OF FUNCTION.......

So far we have......

W(x) = ((total appearernce)/(total tries))*(a*2,5*p^2+g(x))

where a will be a value related possibly to hits and total drawings, will see..

patron
 
P

patron

Member
Hey all
I saw anendotos(.)com has statistics for many lotteries worldwide....
Check the statistics for your prefered lottery and you will see at the last column the value that we search for.... forecast...
If someone has any idea how this came from, feel free to say...
I'm still searching for the formula.... not a major breakthrough thought....
 
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