comparing won combinations

[W Kaenzig]

why things happen

Millsy
The reason that in col a 1-32 +38 shows up is that col a only includes 1-44 and 1-20 shows up 96.603% of the time. col b only includes 2-45 and 2-29 shows up 96.508% for all drawings. col c only includes 3-46 and 6-37 shows up 96.445% for all drawings. col d only includes 4-47 and 13-44 shows up 96.445% for all drawings. col e only includes 5-48 and 21-48 shows up 96.508% of the time. col f only includes 6-49 and 30-49 shows up 96.603% of the time.
I can prove all of this. W

You lost me a little with the 2nd part but I've tried abbreviated wheels before using libertybasic for which I am throughly familiar.
Wheels are only as good as the programmer makes them. Most programmers are only interested in the wheels, not other relevant info. Too much bunching can occur. I prefer a more balanced approach by coming up with a list that keeps all combos in balance as closely as possible.

 

[W Kaenzig]

column a

to continue with quantities for col a (the lowest possible nr of 6):
1 = 1,712,304
2 = 1,533,939
3 = 1,370,754
4 = 1,221,759
5 = 1,068,008
6 = 962,598
7 = 850,668
8 = 749,398
9 = 658,008
10 = 575,757
11 = 501,942
12 = 435,897
13 = 376,992
14 = 324,632
15 = 278,256
16 = 237,336
17 = 201,376
18 = 169,911
19 = 142,106
20 = 118,755
21 = 98,280
22 = 80,730
23 = 65,780
24 = 53,130
25 = 42,504
26 = 33,649
27 = 26,334
28 = 20,349
29 = 15,504
30 = 11,628
31 = 8,568
32 = 6,188
33 = 4,368
34 = 3,003
35 = 2,002
36 = 1,287
37 = 792
38 = 462
39 = 252
40 = 126
41 = 56
42 = 21
43 = 6
44 = 1

The total for col a, as will be the total for the other 5 columns is 13,983,816. Fancy that!! The odds for the game!!

 

[millsy]

wk - i too have messed with wheels...not too impressed. BUT..
try creating a "pattern" using your abrev wheel...you will get
'bunches' as mentioned..but take your pattern of tickets...
say it goes like this..010203040506
010203040507, 010203040508, 010203040509 etc...
now instead of playing these, go into say excel and do a search and replace "01" = 10 , "02" = 23, etc.. for all n, then take your
pattern and bubble sort...often you lose the 'bunches'

when you do this, you may also consider taking "01" and "02"
..since they are going to create pairs 10 & 23 throughout your
'pattern'..and research 'common pairs' then stack your results
by placing common pairs side by side when substituting in...
for instance..11 & 16, 07 & 21, 34 & 49, 20 & 43 etc...i haven't
run the results lately..my program does it automatically for me each draw now, but i think these were some of the "common
pairs"

 

[W Kaenzig]

substitution within wheels

Millsy, I've tried substituting in various ways. Very time consuming, and one is still stuck with 24 nrs from a wheel of 24. My question to myself is always what about the other 25?
Wheeling and substituting is a step forward, but somehow still doesn't quite get it. Therefore, my goal is to wheel all 49, with some built-in restrictions (filters as you folks prefer), but not all restrictions. For instance, if there are 18,424 different triples, and one wants to wheel all 18,424, and each draw creates 20 different triples, then theorectically one would need 921.2 selections. However, because 921.2 does not come out evenly, there will be some repetion involved. The trick is to minimize this repetion. W

 

[W Kaenzig]

bubbler sort

Millsy, BTW what does 'bubble sort' mean? I have probably done this but I am unfamiliar with the term. W

 

[W Kaenzig]

col a

Since no one has responded to the data which I provided for col a, then I shall not spend any time providing data for col b, c, d, e, f. I'll just get back to what I was doing. W

 

[millsy]

wk - bubble sort is just 12 02 19 47 32 24 becomes
02 12 19 24 32 47
also - 05 12 19 28 32 48
02 08 16 25 39 49
would become
02 08 16 25 39 49
05 12 19 28 32 48
so 'tickets' are in order....and 'file' is in order...

i have created the following small abrev wheels which work pretty
well IF you pick the right numbers...
n=12 #t = 4 a b c d e f
a b g h i j
c d g h k l
e f i j k l
each n is used 2x

similarly, you can do this for n=14 #t = 7, each n is used 3 x
similarly, you can use n=16 #t=16 each n is used 6x
similarly you can use n=22 #t = 77 , each n is used 21 x

common denominator is...in each "set" of tickets, there are no
duplicated combos of 3 !

file size starts to go nuts as you go past n=22 ! but i like it
much better than 'wheeling'

have you ever tried substituting "p" values for outcomes ?
i have never tried but i would bet it has some merit....i think this
is a little along the line of thought you were mentioning to mirage.. here goes....p(1)=010203040506, p(2)=010203040507
p(3)=010203040508..etc...p(13983816)=444546474849

then you can use the "p values" that have occurred,,2250 x 7
because you can use the bonus as well ( no duplicates ) and
plot along a line..i would assume you could make the x axis the
p value...then above the axis either no dot or zero occurance..or
if occurred, place a dot....i would bet the "map" would be almost
like a solid little line on a 8.5x11" landscape printout....then you
could likely change the scales to get a better (excel tyoe ) look
at the graph...should be normal dist with mean to left..skewed
right ? may even be able to use the "p"value to train a neural
network to "predict " the next "p"value..then translate back into
the ticket to play ? just a thought

 

[W Kaenzig]

programming

Millsy, I was able to understand about 90% or what you are talking about. It is good to know these things. However, you have an advantage over me --- which is okay. I have no formal programming education. 99% of my programming skills are self-taught. However, I'm very logical and can understand most of what you say.
All of my excel knowledge is self-taught through trial and error. And, I've never used the combin function of excel. The reason? It does for you automatically the functions without one understanding how it is done. This is what I'm after in all that I do, -- understanding. I want to know how to do these things in a simple fashion. Just be a little more basic when you explain things. Thanks. I thought "bubble sort" was the little window of excel where one sorts 3 columns at a time. W

 

[W Kaenzig]

I understand your logic with 12 and 2x and the 14 as I used to do a lot of playing around within excel for various combos and substituting. Didn't accomplice much as it still left too many questions for me. And, it consumed a lot of time. I think that I still have a few of those files. However, about 2 months ago after much wrangling in my head about a solution to the repetition problem, I finally figured out (I think) a way go come up with a permanent list withing excel that keeps a close balance of small combos and keeps the larger combos from repeating. I'm still working on it. W

 

[millsy]

hi wk..sorry if i've put too much programming stuff in...i too am
self taught except for some antique stuff i learned back in school
in the (cough) 70's !
i don't use excel for programming..i use various forms of basic..
although i do use excel and txt file formats just so i can port the stuff around to various programs.

i also wrote a program that allows you to pick any n up to 49
and create a "pattern" file by filtering or qualifying a 'ticket'
before saving it..based upon either no duplicate combos of 3 or 4 or 5..i forget the size/# of tickets each creates but i'll run them
when i have a chance and let you know...problem with programming it is that you get tickets like
010203040506
010207080910
011112131415
etc...
consequently, when the file is finished, i do a # count...see how many 01's 02's etc....then i do a search and replace, using a f/d
and common pairs..for instance, i think 02 or 03 usually comes up
the most in these files..so i would normally put 31 or 47 where the
02 was...next to the 31 or 47 i would then put the most common
number to have fallen with 31 (or 47) so they remain paired throughout the set of tickets....then i would filter this file for no
duplicate combo 6's, 2/21 from last 3 draws, 3/24 from top 4 x col
etc..

 

[W Kaenzig]

programming

You still know more about it than I do. I also can write a short program that prints all of the 13,983,816. But, why do that and get all of that junk within the low nrs? Or within the high nrs? Limit in the 1st place what the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc will look like. The %'S which I mentioned in an earlier post will remove a lot of that stuff automatically, and you can adjust those %'s if you want. Can you separate the n into 6 pieces in order to do that?
It takes a lot of time to accomplish all of this which is why I spent about a year adding filters to the program, and still didn't get the results which were pleasing to me. So, I went back to excel. W

 

[W Kaenzig]

Oh, Millsy....Where fore art thou? Busy studying, doing research and programming? Haven't heard from you.
Where, or where is Millsy? W

 

[millsy]

hi wk...miss me ?...had to get back to work for a while. also, i've
been worjing on another idea...it may have some use..i'll try to
explain it...list all winning #'s from most recent (on top) to oldest
(below)..without bonus..now for each number, count how many draws back before you get that number again..save this number..
repeat for all six....now add these six "goback numbers" and divide by 6..gives you the average that you have to go back..on average..to get all six....seems to end up aroung 6~7 ..i can run
this for any number of draws..now this average for each of the
occurrances to date..2250+, do a freq dist on each average result
and see how many times it occurs in the 2250+ draws..now go back to present and check which of the 'most popular' averages
have NOT come up for a while..or are "overdue"...rank them by overdue factor...ie..on 9/17 i ran this program last....top o/a
averages are 41/6, 30/6, 42/6, 43/6, 39/6, 36/6, 38/6 etc...
then i ran averages for the last 49 draws and checked which ones have NOT come up..according to which ones SHOULD come
up based upon the overall f/d (above)..recents look like..42/6, 22/6, 25/6, 31/6, 35/6, 51/6, 40/6, 41/6, 44/6 etc....now i looked for the ones which are normally hot yet have not come up recently...ranked like overdue...they are 30/6, 43/6, 36/6, 38/6, 32/6, 46/6, 33/6, 34/6, 37/6 etc....i have found that usually a group of these can be used as a filter..ie..play tickets which
exibit these overdue averages IF they were to fall,..i will update
my lotto file and rerun and report on which averages have fallen since 9/17..back soon.

 

[W Kaenzig]

Wow! Good to hear from you. Sounds like you're having lots of fun playing around with these things. I asked for you because you and I seem to understand each other more.

1. I don't believe in databases that track history.
2. There are some nrs to be avoided that are overdue, but this is still a lot of guesswork.
3. Use facts first.
4. One can know these facts in advance. (quantities for each position).
5. Don't get me wrong. No matter what one does, one is still left with many, many possibilities.
6. I've already given the quantities in 1st (lowest) position.
7. Would you like the others?
8. No one else has responded to this.

 

[millsy]

hi wk..i too have a little utility which gives me the occurance by
column, so i'm ok there..thanks...regarding historical data...i like
some of the stuff that can be derived from the historic files.
i'm not really a big fan of perfect randomness...great in theory..
but given the balls are man-nase, mechaical in nature, given the machine, the way the balls are always dropped into the tank in
the same order (while it is stopped)..the relationship between
spheres..etc...i'm not saying i know how these relationships react
towards one another..i just believe there is one...and leave it at that. otherwise, it would be pointless to try to figure anything out.
also, prob theory would suggest a normal distribution..over the life of the lottery. unfortunately the life of the lottery is around
130,000 years so i know i won't be around to watch the theory pan out. rather, i think of the lottery as a small blip in the life of the lottery and that over that small blip, the lottery will not behave randomly just because there is not enough time for it to do so....consequently i do believe there are significant things one
can derive from 'history'..such as..no duplicate 7's or 6's.
a purist would bet against me...taking all numbers into account every time...but the facts would show that 2250+ out of the last
2250+ draws, the purist is wrong and i am right. even if we do
see a duplicate 6 some time soon, the purist will have been right
once in 2250+ draws and i'll have been wrong once in 2250 draws. i like my odds a little better. as i mentioned before i checked all of the 649 lotteries i could find on the web and x-refffed their winning numbers....none of them had duplicates...
figure that one ?
anyway - i'll try to report back on the 'goback averages ' later.
bfn

 

[kosteczki]

And once again I become the midle man, believing in a little of both extremes. I too believe quite strongly in percentages, things like the chances of all 6 numbers ending in the same digit are very very low, therefore I would never play them, sure I may be wrong everyone once in a while but overall I will be right more often than not.

But at the same time I also believe in history, just because certain combinations have a low low low chance of being played doesn't mean certain numbers over all will be played a lot less, or a lot more. Also even though past outcomes don't influence the future in a game of randomness, we can use the percentages of something re-ocurring again as a way to eliminate a number.

I have used this playing roulette, though it's quite risky but here is what I do. For anyone that knows how roulette works, I bet on the first second and third 12's. If for example there have been no numbers in the first 12 hit for 6 spins I would start betting on the first 12. slowly increasing my bet until it hits, I have set up a betting pattern for this to give me 15 straight bets before I am in trouble. I have won a profit of $50 risking less than $100 every time I have used this formula. (I pulled a 1 week trip visiting a casino for no more than 3 hours a day every day, I came out with approximatly $400 profit in a week)

I have lost $200 2 times, mainly because I broke my own rules of betting. Walking into a casino I saw something like 10 straight no hits for a third and I started betting at a higher level. A level being enough higher that if I started betting on the 7h spin my normal way by the 10th I would have all ready risked less than my first bet when I screwed up. In turn I would either run out of money or give up after reaching a limit too high for me.

But in general following my rules I win 9/10 times when brekaing my rules I loose 2/3 times.

So I apply the same to the lotto.
Based on %, like never play a combination that has more than 3 numbers ending in the same digit. I don't have my stats on how many combinations that eliminates but you can have alook at how many times I have been right in all the draws.

So now I am trying to find a way to put all my rules into a system to use. I should be done in a couple of weeks and then we can watch a live test draw by draw.

As long as I follow my rules I am sure I am going to do fine.
It's hard to follow your own rules sometimes though heh.