GillesD said:

**Recently Maggie raised an interesting question about the odds of cold numbers coming out.**

Beaker defines a cold number as one that has skipped 10 or more draws. I agree with that.

But I have to disagree with some of the answers provided by Beaker:

1 - I do not think that the odds are the same for 3 or 4 numbers to come out. The odds will change depending on the number of cold numbers in all the 49 numbers and the odds of getting 3 of those cold numbers will always be greater than getting 4 of them.

2 - Looking at my database, I find only 6 draws where were 5 cold numbers came out; these are draws #476, 694, 772, 1180, 1542 and 1679. Beaker, what are the other 3 so I can check my database?

3 - As far as the longest absence, I have #7 coming out in draw #1572 after an absence of 79 draws. Followed by #28 in draw #333 after skipping 72 draws.

4 - I am not sure about your comment that "at least 1 number that hits will be cold". How about draw #1937 where none of the numbers coming out would have been considered cold. I think that in about 14% of the draws, no cold numbers came out.

5 - Obviously, for the first 9 draws, there were no cold numbers but after that the number of cold numbers averaged nearly 13.5 for each draw. The maximum number of cold numbers was 20 for draw #1241 and the minimum was 7 for draw#933.

By comparing our results, this will allow to validate our database and our calculations.

Thanks GillesD. Let me clarify some points.

1. The odds will change for the number of cold numbers - this is correct - BUT the odds

**will** be the same for

**any** 3 or 4 number combination regardless of how you classify them. This was the point I was trying to make. If there are 6 hot numbers and 6 cold numbers the odds are the same. You are correct in saying that the odds of getting 3 will always be greater than 4.

2. I included the bonus number in my list so our draw numbers will be different. With the bonus included I get the following:

297,404,476,694,785,1275,1314,1436,1449.

3. Again, bonus numbers were included in my calculations. 1523,1567 and 1571 had 7 as the bonus in that stretch between 1492 and 1572.

4. If we include the bonus number, starting with draw 11 and ending with 1936, I get 82.3% of the draws have

**at least 1 number that has skipped 10 draws ** or 8 out of 10 draws will have at least 1 cold number. So if you include the bonus your 14% is a little higher - 2 out of 10 draws will have no cold ones. I'll take the 8 and you can chase the 2

thats why I play a cold one every draw.

5. I didn't calculate this but it is good to know. Based on the figure of 13.5 we should be looking at 2 cold ones/draw.

Thanks again Professor. It is always good to ensure that we are as clear as possible when we publish our stats.