Changes to Lotto 6/49 Sales since the Increase

Icewynd

Member
Sooooo, back in the Summer (remember Summer? It seems so far away now!) we were speculating about what difference the price increase for Lotto 6/49 might make to people's lotto buying habits.

The other day I stumbled across a page that gives sales figures for the 6/49 Lottery,
http://www.lotterycanada.com/lotto-649/2013-12-21
so I figured I might as well do a quick comparison.

There have been 18 draws since the price change, so I compared that with the 18 draws before the change.

So, from June 12, 2013 to September 14, 2013 the average sales per draw were $12,786,370.00 or an average of 6,393,185 tickets at $2.00 per ticket.

After the change, from September 18, 2013 to December 21, 2013, the average sales per draw were $19,933,324.00 or an average of 6,644,441 tickets sold per draw at $3.00 per ticket.

Over the 18 draws there was a slight increase in tickets sold. Looking more closely however, I believe the fact that the Jackpot rolled over 8 times immediately after the change, building to an eventual win of $40 Million, had a lot to do with the increased ticket sales. Sales for those first 8 draws after the price change averaged $23,595,764.00 per draw, while for the 10 draws following the big jackpot sales averaged $18,468,348.00 which represents fewer tickets sold than the before-change sales.

Also, I looked at the number of winners for each draw. To make this comparison I had to remove the winners of free tickets that were added after the price change so that I could make an "apples to apples" comparison.

Before the price change there were an average of 200,369 winners of cash prizes for each draw. After the change, the number of winners averaged 210,569. Again, the statistic started off strong and has tapered off: For the first 8 draws after the change (up to the $40 Million Jackpot) the average number of winners was 247,154 while in the most recent 10 draws the average number of winners was 195,936. Remember that there is now a "free ticket" prize for matching 2 numbers which distributes 700,000 to 800,000 free tickets each draw. However the free tickets do not seem to have increased the cash prizes won per ticket bought.

Overall it appears that, after the initial excitement over a large jackpot, ticket sales have declined slightly measured by both sales figures and by the number of winners. So, most players would appear to be maintaining, or only slightly reducing the number of tickets bought at the new, increased price.

However, the lottery commissions likely don't care that people are spending more and winning less, as their take has increased. Just imagine the salary increases and expense-account trips that they can have with an extra $6 Million per draw funded by the generous Canadian public!

Good luck!

:thumb:
 

15tons

Member
Tricky Ticket...

I'm still confused by this new ticket format. I've been under the misconception that the extra $1 price was sweetened by having a " guaranteed winning draw of $1,000,000) . Meaning someone is definitely getting $1m each draw.

This extra$1 is a kinda quasi shadow ENCORE draw..no?
Then there is the confusion over 10 digit assigned number with a dash -
after the 8th digit to denote if the ticket has more than one ticket play on it.
ie 12345678-01 (02..06?) So how is a winning ticket selected(computer data base of all tickets purchased?) Can a ticket have the first 8 digits correct..but miss on the final 2?

And the cherry on top is the option of bumping the ticket price to $4 with the actual ENCORE option . I never get ENCORE, is it a bad odds choice? That extra long number sequence spooks me out, and is it computer generated as well?

Played and Confused
 

Icewynd

Member
15tons said:
I'm still confused by this new ticket format. I've been under the misconception that the extra $1 price was sweetened by having a " guaranteed winning draw of $1,000,000) . Meaning someone is definitely getting $1m each draw. This extra$1 is a kinda quasi shadow ENCORE draw..no?
I don't know if I would compare it to ENCORE, because the ENCORE prize does not have to be paid out. In this case a sold ticket number is picked to win the $1M.

15tons said:
Then there is the confusion over 10 digit assigned number with a dash -
after the 8th digit to denote if the ticket has more than one ticket play on it.
ie 12345678-01 (02..06?) So how is a winning ticket selected(computer data base of all tickets purchased?) Can a ticket have the first 8 digits correct..but miss on the final 2?

I have no idea what those numbers are all about. Probably some kind of tracking -- date, time, retailer ID number, game played, etc.


15tons said:
And the cherry on top is the option of bumping the ticket price to $4 with the actual ENCORE option . I never get ENCORE, is it a bad odds choice? That extra long number sequence spooks me out, and is it computer generated as well?

No, I never buy the ENCORE either. For one thing, your odds are 1:10 Million for the top prize. Might as well buy an ON49 ticket -- odds 1:13.9 Million, but only costs $0.50. So, for the same buck you get odds of 2:13.9 million or 1:6.95 Million. In my opinion, ON49 is the best jackpot game available in Ontario.


15tons said:
Played and Confused

Join the crowd!

Good luck!
:thumb:
 

15tons

Member
Yes AGREED ON49 is a nice nugget.
I always overlooked it, thinking it another of the 'piddly' nuisance lotteries like pick3,4 ..KENO..Prolines/Propicks/Pools. But I see that folks actually do pick up
some decent pocket cash off these. Especially the Proline series!

KENO:burnt: is actually alarmingly stingy w.r.t volume of payouts.

I was an infrequent lottery player until 1-2 years a go. Mostly OLG 649 up til then, and then too the occasional Hospital lottery with more favourable odds. The drums with hand picked chips system still bothers me somehow tho..I dunno maybe it is just as equitable as whatever else.

But Yes thanks for helping resolve the mystery of the new $3 649 ticket structure.
 

Icewynd

Member
mikkii said:
i would have thought that the sales of tickets would have dropped because of the price hike to 3 bucks

I agree, Mikki, that's what I thought would happen too. But it seems that, at least for now, people are maintaining the number of tickets purchased, or only slightly reducing them.

However, I only looked at 18 draws before and after the change -- it may be that sales will gradually drop off over time. On the other hand, larger jackpots and the $1M prize each draw may keep people buying those tickets.

Good luck!
:thumb:
 

moaga

Member
Most or faithful lotto players are sick, addicted. The game owner knows how to get people to play by creating or forcing the jackpot. As soon as the jackpot increases, many people get tempted to play.

Greed, grreed, this game has nothing to do with luck. It's all about human greed and manipulation
 

Icewynd

Member
moaga said:
Most or faithful lotto players are sick, addicted. The game owner knows how to get people to play by creating or forcing the jackpot. As soon as the jackpot increases, many people get tempted to play.

Most definitely! You can see the ticket sales rise with an increasing jackpot.

moaga said:
Greed, greed, this game has nothing to do with luck. It's all about human greed and manipulation

Well, we know its really all about convincing us to pad out government budgets by coughing up some $$$ in addition to what we pay in taxes, that's where the greed and manipulation comes in. Winning part of the 50% that's left over after their take is based on luck.

Good luck!
:thumb:
 

GWOOF

Member
I've heard they tape several test runs of the ball drops till they get the best out come for a roll over to increase the jackpot size. The same with Lotto Max. Don't know if it's true or not.
 

Icewynd

Member
GWOOF said:
I've heard they tape several test runs of the ball drops till they get the best out come for a roll over to increase the jackpot size. The same with Lotto Max. Don't know if it's true or not.

I guess they could do that. I'm not sure that they could keep it a secret for very long, though.

In Ontario they have a guest (minor celebrity) that pushes the button to start the draw -- these folks aren't lottery commission insiders and have no reason to keep the OLG's secrets. In fact, revealing that the OLG did multiple takes might be a good way for them to get their faces on the front page -- major publicity value.

Good luck!
:thumb:
 

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