Certainty and Prediction
Niguel:
The virtual world of the Net makes us all virtual beings. Hardly can we fathom real humans in a virtual world. I am much more comfortable dealing with book characters. Just about everybody is a character in my book. Assuredly, I must be a character in just about everybody else’s library. So, book characters live more truly by their names. Their names are their lives. There is no way you can bear a better name than this: Niguel. Pronounced as in Spanish; Niguelon is the diminutive.
I noticed your contributions in math(s)-type of newsgroups, in addition to rec.lottery. You never get mad—and that’s a problem. It’s not humane. Not even the creatures living on the Uilas planet can be that iceborg-cold. Friends and friends of the friends brought my attention to you. There is also another problem: Your affiliation(s). I just can’t figure out the rationale of your affiliation(s) with the likes of Donkey Smith (character, eh?), Parakelsus, Kulai Barker; even the likes of Mockofun, Kokostirk, Kotkoduck... Anyway, I don’t really give a damn on the personal side of things.
The Truth rules supreme on the Uilas planet you refer to. Every stone on the Uilas planet is inorganically aware that they are the result of Randomness Almighty—like anything else. The Ruler on Uilas banned the paradigm of ‘The Truth is carved in stone.” Randomness Almighty cannot be carved in stone! The Time will come on Earth when (virtually) all self-aware organic subjects will be convinced that only Randomness is Almighty. Randomness is great. Let life be a little like a myth in a virtual world!
Mathematics proves beyond reasonable doubt, backed by billions of Earth years, that absolute certainty is absolute absurdity. The overwhelming majority of humans have found supreme comfort in the conceptual hope of Absolute Certainty. Embodied it has been in thousands of deities; lately, the deities tend to converge into One God.
We ain’t gonna drain bandwidth into worship sewers. Thing is, there is no absolute certainty; therefore there is no prediction! You ain’t gonna find a more compelling truth! Today, here, in Cashtown, PA, USA, -5GMT, is Friday, February 22, 2004, 19:30 PM. O, wise one, your IonSaliuCalculator is not capable of counting how many humans believe tomorrow will be Saturday, February 23, 2004, in Cashtown, PA, USA, -5GMT! There are tornadoes that can wipe out my small community. Earth tremolos can bury deeply, at any random time, much larger communities than this one!
Yeah, the Earth has rotated, without getting dizzy like you and I get sometimes, for over four billion years. What could be more certain than a tomorrow on earth? Yet, there is no Absolute Certainty of tomorrow on earth. You, wise ones, have heard of those ubiquitous gamma ray bursts. A countless number of gamma ray bursts come to life every second, all across the Universe. You know what the bursts do to life? Burn it to stakes worse than the Inquisition did to those mindfully daring human bodies. There is no certainty that a gamma ray burst won’t occur in our galaxy, randomly suddenly. The 70% divine proportion of water on earth would generate a catastrophically huge amount of rocket fuel (hydrogen and oxygen). The oceans will burn in white-hot flames; the earth will burst in white-hot flames. No religious book could envision a more frightening story.
The Apocalypse is, by comparison, a children’s story. In fact, it is the story of a child emperor (Nero). The numerical transformation of the name Nero, from Latin to Greek, leads to the famous 666 = the number of the beast. Aren’t things curious? The 666-number came to life again, in the great state of Pennsylvania, in an infamous lottery drawing! (Well, I don’t get it, Niguel! Why do you insist on lottery draw, instead of drawing? Both terms are wrong. Shouldn’t we say ‘extraction of numbers’ instead?)
So, if your worst enemy says: “No prediction is possible”, you should say: “O, wise one!” All is random, nothing (absolutely) is predictable. Two fundamental factors differentiate phenomena: the individual probability (p) and the degree of certainty (DC). The probability is extremely high that tomorrow is going to be Saturday, February 23, 2004. The history backs that up. The history is gigantic, and it counts. But don’t you count on the absolutely equal to 100% degree of certainty that tomorrow is going to be Saturday, February 23, 2004! Mathematics blows an absolute absurdity in your face. Nothing exists without mathematics. You know it well, o wise one, for you are in academia (they whispered to me, the horses whispered).
We gotta be careful not to fall too hard on Earth, descending from that Uilas planet. (Curious, we never talked before. Yet, I had created a planet of mine many years ago. It’s name: Uilas Noi.) Loteria seems so insignificant now. Who cares what your counter-arguer Shobolan thinks about prediction? He is absolutely certain that he is going to have a tomorrow, well, you guessed it, tomorrow! He say to you “You can’t predict nothing, cuz nothing is absolutely certain!” Yet, he is absolutely certain he’ll be here tomorrow! Oh, boy! Also, picture this, will you? Can’t you detect how many mind-altering bottles he empties before he is replying to you? Man, given the traffic in his area, he absolutely decreases his degree of certainty of replying to you—tomorrow, or any after tomorrow!
Seriously, now. We must be more careful from now on regarding the usage of these two higher concepts: Certainty and Predictability. They are absurd, from an absolute perspective. The events are differently predictable based upon their individual probabilities. The degrees of certainty are a human invention. It is a tool of our essential Fear_Survival system. We have used prediction as a tool of survival, induced by fear. It was essential that Homo erectus predicted the schedule of the lions—their hunting, eating, napping habits, etc. Since absolute prediction was an absurdity, the lions killed a good many unknown Homo erectus heads. Yet, many more humans survived the onslaught to be able to tell the story today. Or, more precisely, for the story to be told today.
It’s not clear to me how you view prediction. You show some percentages with regards to your work in the philosophical science of predicting. The numbers are (absolutely) unclear, since they don’t correlate to two essential factors: Expected value and Standard deviation. The two essential factors are like the two lions at the entrance of just about any of your king’s castles. There is no question that humans can predict better than random expectation. Look at this: Humans are the only entities in the Universe able to create perfect shapes. The perfect shapes defy randomness. Alas, the perfect shapes cannot be eternal!
When we predict, we select the minimum amount of events that offer the highest degree of certainty, based on history. The Shobolans of the worlds would scream in your face that heads will come out an infinity times in a row, in an infinity number of coin tosses. NOOTT! NOOOTTT! Randomness is Almighty, right? No factor of the two opposites has the upper hand in any event. Consequently, Almighty Randomness (almost) always favors the FFG median. For FFG are the most beloved letters of Almighty Number.
Keep it koolé, Niguelon!
Ion Saliu
"The Philosophical Science of Winning"
http://www.saliu.com/
• The Home of the Best Lottery, Gambling, and Scientific Freeware Software. Don't you pay a penny for anything else!
---------------------
"Nigel" <useweb@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:m_nZb.7106$h44.897390@stones.force9.net
> John Griffin (Shobolan) wrote:
>
> <snips>
>
> >>
> >>The forecasts for the UK Lottery that I publish on my web
> >>site don't beat expectation by 2.6 S.Devs for the German
> >>lottery. What a bizarre concept!
> >
> >
> > Say what?
> >
> > Are you trying to tell me there's no relationship between the UK
> > history and the German lottery future? Can you prove that?
> >
> >
>
> That's a good intro to tell you about a "thought experiment" that's been
> bouncing around for a while.
>
> Notice the word thought, so for anyone unable to think beyond what they
> once read in a book, there's no point in reading the rest of this.
>
> The rolling forecasts on my website average a hit rate between 13.5 and
> 14%. Splitting out the Wednesday and Saturday draw data and analysing
> them separately (as I do for the Procyon Rising Project) also averages
> between 13.5 and 14%. Doing the same for the German Lottery (combined,
> Wednesday only and Saturday only) produces similar results.
>
> If you can subtract distributions and not affect the quality of the
> forecasts, then why can't you also add distributions? It's practical to
> test this but I haven't had time yet.
>
> Now suppose you have a weekend 6/49 lottery here on earth, and a lottery
> on the planet Uilas 6 light-days away that is drawn corresponding to
> earth midweek, such that the draws are exactly 3.5 days out of step. If
> you combine the distributions produced by those lotteries, then the
> latest results of the 6/49 lottery here on earth can be used to help
> forecast the results of the next lottery on Uilas even though it's
> outside the event horizon (3.5 days later but 6 light-days away).
>
> Not only would that make Mr Griffin and me-math-guy choke on their stats
> books, but that would upset a large number of physicists too.
>
> Evil Nigel
Niguel:
The virtual world of the Net makes us all virtual beings. Hardly can we fathom real humans in a virtual world. I am much more comfortable dealing with book characters. Just about everybody is a character in my book. Assuredly, I must be a character in just about everybody else’s library. So, book characters live more truly by their names. Their names are their lives. There is no way you can bear a better name than this: Niguel. Pronounced as in Spanish; Niguelon is the diminutive.
I noticed your contributions in math(s)-type of newsgroups, in addition to rec.lottery. You never get mad—and that’s a problem. It’s not humane. Not even the creatures living on the Uilas planet can be that iceborg-cold. Friends and friends of the friends brought my attention to you. There is also another problem: Your affiliation(s). I just can’t figure out the rationale of your affiliation(s) with the likes of Donkey Smith (character, eh?), Parakelsus, Kulai Barker; even the likes of Mockofun, Kokostirk, Kotkoduck... Anyway, I don’t really give a damn on the personal side of things.
The Truth rules supreme on the Uilas planet you refer to. Every stone on the Uilas planet is inorganically aware that they are the result of Randomness Almighty—like anything else. The Ruler on Uilas banned the paradigm of ‘The Truth is carved in stone.” Randomness Almighty cannot be carved in stone! The Time will come on Earth when (virtually) all self-aware organic subjects will be convinced that only Randomness is Almighty. Randomness is great. Let life be a little like a myth in a virtual world!
Mathematics proves beyond reasonable doubt, backed by billions of Earth years, that absolute certainty is absolute absurdity. The overwhelming majority of humans have found supreme comfort in the conceptual hope of Absolute Certainty. Embodied it has been in thousands of deities; lately, the deities tend to converge into One God.
We ain’t gonna drain bandwidth into worship sewers. Thing is, there is no absolute certainty; therefore there is no prediction! You ain’t gonna find a more compelling truth! Today, here, in Cashtown, PA, USA, -5GMT, is Friday, February 22, 2004, 19:30 PM. O, wise one, your IonSaliuCalculator is not capable of counting how many humans believe tomorrow will be Saturday, February 23, 2004, in Cashtown, PA, USA, -5GMT! There are tornadoes that can wipe out my small community. Earth tremolos can bury deeply, at any random time, much larger communities than this one!
Yeah, the Earth has rotated, without getting dizzy like you and I get sometimes, for over four billion years. What could be more certain than a tomorrow on earth? Yet, there is no Absolute Certainty of tomorrow on earth. You, wise ones, have heard of those ubiquitous gamma ray bursts. A countless number of gamma ray bursts come to life every second, all across the Universe. You know what the bursts do to life? Burn it to stakes worse than the Inquisition did to those mindfully daring human bodies. There is no certainty that a gamma ray burst won’t occur in our galaxy, randomly suddenly. The 70% divine proportion of water on earth would generate a catastrophically huge amount of rocket fuel (hydrogen and oxygen). The oceans will burn in white-hot flames; the earth will burst in white-hot flames. No religious book could envision a more frightening story.
The Apocalypse is, by comparison, a children’s story. In fact, it is the story of a child emperor (Nero). The numerical transformation of the name Nero, from Latin to Greek, leads to the famous 666 = the number of the beast. Aren’t things curious? The 666-number came to life again, in the great state of Pennsylvania, in an infamous lottery drawing! (Well, I don’t get it, Niguel! Why do you insist on lottery draw, instead of drawing? Both terms are wrong. Shouldn’t we say ‘extraction of numbers’ instead?)
So, if your worst enemy says: “No prediction is possible”, you should say: “O, wise one!” All is random, nothing (absolutely) is predictable. Two fundamental factors differentiate phenomena: the individual probability (p) and the degree of certainty (DC). The probability is extremely high that tomorrow is going to be Saturday, February 23, 2004. The history backs that up. The history is gigantic, and it counts. But don’t you count on the absolutely equal to 100% degree of certainty that tomorrow is going to be Saturday, February 23, 2004! Mathematics blows an absolute absurdity in your face. Nothing exists without mathematics. You know it well, o wise one, for you are in academia (they whispered to me, the horses whispered).
We gotta be careful not to fall too hard on Earth, descending from that Uilas planet. (Curious, we never talked before. Yet, I had created a planet of mine many years ago. It’s name: Uilas Noi.) Loteria seems so insignificant now. Who cares what your counter-arguer Shobolan thinks about prediction? He is absolutely certain that he is going to have a tomorrow, well, you guessed it, tomorrow! He say to you “You can’t predict nothing, cuz nothing is absolutely certain!” Yet, he is absolutely certain he’ll be here tomorrow! Oh, boy! Also, picture this, will you? Can’t you detect how many mind-altering bottles he empties before he is replying to you? Man, given the traffic in his area, he absolutely decreases his degree of certainty of replying to you—tomorrow, or any after tomorrow!
Seriously, now. We must be more careful from now on regarding the usage of these two higher concepts: Certainty and Predictability. They are absurd, from an absolute perspective. The events are differently predictable based upon their individual probabilities. The degrees of certainty are a human invention. It is a tool of our essential Fear_Survival system. We have used prediction as a tool of survival, induced by fear. It was essential that Homo erectus predicted the schedule of the lions—their hunting, eating, napping habits, etc. Since absolute prediction was an absurdity, the lions killed a good many unknown Homo erectus heads. Yet, many more humans survived the onslaught to be able to tell the story today. Or, more precisely, for the story to be told today.
It’s not clear to me how you view prediction. You show some percentages with regards to your work in the philosophical science of predicting. The numbers are (absolutely) unclear, since they don’t correlate to two essential factors: Expected value and Standard deviation. The two essential factors are like the two lions at the entrance of just about any of your king’s castles. There is no question that humans can predict better than random expectation. Look at this: Humans are the only entities in the Universe able to create perfect shapes. The perfect shapes defy randomness. Alas, the perfect shapes cannot be eternal!
When we predict, we select the minimum amount of events that offer the highest degree of certainty, based on history. The Shobolans of the worlds would scream in your face that heads will come out an infinity times in a row, in an infinity number of coin tosses. NOOTT! NOOOTTT! Randomness is Almighty, right? No factor of the two opposites has the upper hand in any event. Consequently, Almighty Randomness (almost) always favors the FFG median. For FFG are the most beloved letters of Almighty Number.
Keep it koolé, Niguelon!
Ion Saliu
"The Philosophical Science of Winning"
http://www.saliu.com/
• The Home of the Best Lottery, Gambling, and Scientific Freeware Software. Don't you pay a penny for anything else!
---------------------
"Nigel" <useweb@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:m_nZb.7106$h44.897390@stones.force9.net
> John Griffin (Shobolan) wrote:
>
> <snips>
>
> >>
> >>The forecasts for the UK Lottery that I publish on my web
> >>site don't beat expectation by 2.6 S.Devs for the German
> >>lottery. What a bizarre concept!
> >
> >
> > Say what?
> >
> > Are you trying to tell me there's no relationship between the UK
> > history and the German lottery future? Can you prove that?
> >
> >
>
> That's a good intro to tell you about a "thought experiment" that's been
> bouncing around for a while.
>
> Notice the word thought, so for anyone unable to think beyond what they
> once read in a book, there's no point in reading the rest of this.
>
> The rolling forecasts on my website average a hit rate between 13.5 and
> 14%. Splitting out the Wednesday and Saturday draw data and analysing
> them separately (as I do for the Procyon Rising Project) also averages
> between 13.5 and 14%. Doing the same for the German Lottery (combined,
> Wednesday only and Saturday only) produces similar results.
>
> If you can subtract distributions and not affect the quality of the
> forecasts, then why can't you also add distributions? It's practical to
> test this but I haven't had time yet.
>
> Now suppose you have a weekend 6/49 lottery here on earth, and a lottery
> on the planet Uilas 6 light-days away that is drawn corresponding to
> earth midweek, such that the draws are exactly 3.5 days out of step. If
> you combine the distributions produced by those lotteries, then the
> latest results of the 6/49 lottery here on earth can be used to help
> forecast the results of the next lottery on Uilas even though it's
> outside the event horizon (3.5 days later but 6 light-days away).
>
> Not only would that make Mr Griffin and me-math-guy choke on their stats
> books, but that would upset a large number of physicists too.
>
> Evil Nigel