Calculate the odds in a 5/48 game

[leoboudv]

T. Fisher says that in a 6/49 game, if you play all the numbers, your odds of winning the jackpot is reduced to 5/48 or 1 in 1.71 million.

But what about the odds of wiining the smaller prizes such as 3/6 or 4/6. In a typical 6/49 game, the odds of getting 3 winning numbers is 56 and that of getting 4 winning numbers is 1032. But what happens if you play all the numbers? What are the odds here for 3 and 4 winning numbers? Is it lower or higher.

I wonder if anyone can answer the question. Thank You.

 

[johnph77]

http://www.johnph77.com/math/lo.html

Odds, possibiliities and formulas for most lotteries.

No ads, nothing to sell, for informational purposes only.

 

[leoboudv]

I'll take a look. Thanks.

 

[CMF]

The Odds in Lotto presume Random Selections

Leoboudv

For what you read on Lotto analysis it's a very good approach to take everything with a grain of salt.

The calculation of odds in gambling games has been around for 400 years or so and nothing has come along to necessitate any adjustment. It is all based on the quantities available for the various elements and their ratio to one another when a random selection is made. Where there is more of one than the other you are more likely to get the former. Where the ratio of one to the others is so and so then on average repeating the event your success ratio will be commensurate.

So, for a 6/49 Lotto game rather than prediction nonsense, think about the set of numbers you play and the coverage of that set for all the possibilities. It is covered in depth for 15 sets of numbers at this location
http://lottoposter.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=583
from 28 repeated lines (the worst) through to Random Selections (the second best) and then the best by tweaking if you like Random Selections so that the Coverage is maximized, all the integers are used and repetition of paying subsets are eliminated.

After reading you should understand that the person you refer to is talking rubbish. One line in the set you play covers only one of the 13,983,816 possibilities. If you play 28 lines that are all different you have 28 chances of getting first prize - no more - no less. By reduction 28 in 13,983,816 can be expressed as a ratio of 1 in 499,422 but just like tossing a coin where there are only 2 possibilities you can easily get a losing run of 10 heads if you are betting tails so you can't rely on winning over the next half a million years. In fact I have confirmed losing runs of 10 when playing half the possibilities in a 6/49 lotto game.

If you want to be counted amongst the sane who study Lotto numbers then forget about first prize (you've done the best possible there by keeping your lines unique) and concentrate on maintaining the best, even if negative, percentage return for the lowest prizes.

Colin Fairbrother

 

[leoboudv]

Dear Colin. Thanks for the thorough reply

 

[leoboudv]

Dear Colin. Thanks for the thorough reply. I have just seen a web site which called Fisher's page a scam here although I did not know about this until yesterday: http://www.lotterylottolotteries.com/terryfisher.htm In a separate page, they endorse Gail Howard since she has independent proof of jackpot wins by people using her systems.

I hope I did not mislead anyone on Fisher as I am an not an expert on lottos as you can guess. As an aside, does anyone know if Gail Howard's wheeling systems has personally helped you to gain an above average chance of getting an above average chance of trapping 3, 4 or 5 out of 6 numbers right--ie. a win rather than an outright loss? I remember one contributor here once said here that her system does not work very well for Canadian lotteries but that was 4-5 years ago.

Mr. Boudvile from Vancouver, Canada

 

[Gonga]

Play All 6/49

If you could play all possible combinations in a 6/49 type
game, then this is how many winning combinations there will be.

6 Numbers................1
5 Numbers + Bonus.....6
5 Numbers................252
4 Numbers + Bonus....630
4 Numbers...............12,915
3 Numbers + Bonus....17,220
3 Numbers................229,600

Oh, and if the prize structure changes like the U.K Lotto, then
this will be the results:

6 Numbers................1
5 Numbers + Bonus.....6
5 Numbers................252
4 Numbers................13,545
3 Numbers................246,820

Some lotteries also have this winning division
2 Numbers + Bonus....172,200


P.S: This was obtained using the E.A.L Winning Lotto odds Plugin. (Not yet released)
http://www.slx.za.net

 

[CMF]

Leoboudv

Gail Howard, a successful direct marketer, made herself known to a section of the USA public in the '80s through cable channels that play the same info/commercial over and over again. She was basically promoting the Covers or Wheels of Ivan Dimitrov and if you work your way through the 15 sets for the link I gave you you will find she gets mentioned more than once. (See set 5)

If you visit her website you will find the emphasis is on people who have won first prize. You will find she provides a link to a fortune teller and basically that is what she is doing herself. The chances of getting 1st prize can't be improved on other than by keeping all the lines in the set you play unique.

In Australia System 8 a Full Wheel for 8 integers with 28 lines is a common way to play and despite it being the second worst way of playing in terms of getting any prize with extremely high repetition of the paying subsets, it would have the most 1st prize winners for a system type of play. What I'm saying is the claims of Gail Howard are on par with seeking out the lotto ticket reseller that has sold the greatest number of winning tickets in your country or state and buying your tickets there.

Colin Fairbrother

 

[Gonga]

Plugin Released

I have released the E.A.L Winning Lotto odds Plugin.

Read Post
http://www.lotto649.ws/lotto-software/8981-extremely-awesome-lotto-e-l.html#post117768

 

[CMF]

A Gonga challenge ...

Gonga

Here are 250 lines for a Pick 6 and Pool 7 Lotto game ie the simplest case. I generated these lines at www.Randomizer.org/form.htm and then exported them to Excel.

Your program assumes that there is a link between the history of draws and the next draw. My challenge to you is to show how your program in analyzing what has occurred before as in the data given for a simple 6/7 Lotto game gives an edge in picking correctly the next draw from only 7 possibilities. ie you must do better than Random Selections.

This challenge has been around for a while see http://lottoposter.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=567
and no one has been prepared to apply their program to the task.

1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 5 6 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 7
1 2 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
Occurrence
1 219
2 214
3 204
4 221
5 211
6 209
7 222


This is a forum where you can discuss the merits or otherwise of your program. If you look at the bottom of the page you will see an advert for Lotto Pro 2009 which I am well familiar with, having bought a copy in my very early days of Lotto number analysis and it does most of the usual things people want from a history analysis type program. The difference is John Lake is paying the owner of this site to advertise his product. Are you?

Colin Fairbrother

 

[Gonga]

Re: A Gonga challenge...

E.A.L is more of a Lotto analysis tool and currently does not have the
prediction tool you seek.

But I will take a look at the challenge and see what E.A.L Plugin I can
produce for you and for other users/players.

And as for the add at the bottom, it looks like an add from an affiliate
account. So most likely the site owners get a commission for every sale
generated from this site. This means they don't get paid to place the add,
only for making a sale.


Future Regards

N.G van der Westhuizen
www.slx.za.net

 

[Gonga]

Re: A Gonga challenge...

OK, so here is my analysis for the challenge using the current version of E.A.L.

There are only 2 Even/Odd types.
Even/Odd Type...Possible Combinations...Came up
2/4...................3..............................106 Times
3/3...................4..............................144 Times

Then for the combinations:
ID......Numbers.....................Came up..............X Ago
1.......01-02-03-04-05-06.......28 Times..............0 Draws Ago.......Lowest Ranked Combination
2.......01-02-03-04-05-07.......41 Times..............2 Draws Ago
3.......01-02-03-04-06-07.......39 Times..............9 Draws Ago
4.......01-02-03-05-06-07.......29 Times..............7 Draws Ago
5.......01-02-04-05-06-07.......46 Times..............1 Draw Ago.......Top Ranked Combination
6.......01-03-04-05-06-07.......36 Times..............17 Draws Ago
7.......02-03-04-05-06-07.......31 Times..............3 Draws Ago

Now, if I had to choose the numbers for the next draw it will be:
ID.......Numbers.....................Came up
5.......01-02-04-05-06-07.......46 Times
2.......01-02-03-04-05-07.......41 Times

But whatever numbers I choose for the next draw, I will try and make sure to keep
the numbers 04 & 07 as this combination pair have come up 193 times.

So will the numbers chosen come up in the next draw, maybe not, but they will come
up eventually. You do say it best and I agree: "Lotto Draws have no relationship to one another".

To be honest, I do not think you can truly compare a 6/7 to a 6/49 game as the odds of
winning decreases the more numbers you introduce. Especially true if you take into
account the timeline needed for any combination to occur. But you already knew that.

And getting back to E.A.L, this application is actually a reflection on what I currently
know and understand about Lotto numbers, and what I have found thus far is that to win
the Lotto takes sheer dumb luck, and to choose non winning Lotto numbers takes skill.

Regards
N.G van der Westhuizen
www.slx.za.net

 

[johnph77]

If you could play all possible combinations in a 6/49 type
game, then this is how many winning combinations there will be.

6 Numbers................1
5 Numbers + Bonus.....6
5 Numbers................252
4 Numbers + Bonus....630
4 Numbers...............12,915
3 Numbers + Bonus....17,220
3 Numbers................229,600

Oh, and if the prize structure changes like the U.K Lotto, then
this will be the results:

6 Numbers................1
5 Numbers + Bonus.....6
5 Numbers................252
4 Numbers................13,545
3 Numbers................246,820

Some lotteries also have this winning division
2 Numbers + Bonus....172,200


P.S: This was obtained using the E.A.L Winning Lotto odds Plugin. (Not yet released)
http://www.slx.za.net

This might help.....

http://www.johnph77.com/math/lo.html

No ads, nothing to sell, for informational purposes only.