6/49 false logic

x86alpha

Member
Hey,

First of, I want to wish everyone luck in the upcoming lottery.
Please take no offense of what I am about to say.

BUT I MUST SAY THIS:
You people are trying to figure out patterns, calculate statistics, implement advanced AI techonlogy to predict lottery numbers; however, you must know that this is impossible. No machine, no fuzzy logic, or the most advanced alogirthms in this world can predict the lottery. Although I agree, the term 'random' is debatable in some cases, but this is not one of them.

You guys probably know this anyway - so i must ask - why bother? The only thing here which you can predict is that the numbers will fall between 1 and 49 that is in 6/49 for instance.
 

Beaker

Member
x86alpha said:
Hey,

First of, I want to wish everyone luck in the upcoming lottery.
Please take no offense of what I am about to say.

BUT I MUST SAY THIS:
You people are trying to figure out patterns, calculate statistics, implement advanced AI techonlogy to predict lottery numbers; however, you must know that this is impossible. No machine, no fuzzy logic, or the most advanced alogirthms in this world can predict the lottery. Although I agree, the term 'random' is debatable in some cases, but this is not one of them.

You guys probably know this anyway - so i must ask - why bother? The only thing here which you can predict is that the numbers will fall between 1 and 49 that is in 6/49 for instance.
I take no offense x86, so I hope you can understand the answer to your question why bother? is because we have fun here :lol:

Now, X86, let me ask you a question - what possessed you to become a member, post, ask for software and then criticize what goes on here? :clown: You probably know this anyway - so i must ask - why bother? :dang:
I suggest you read first, speak later - much later. :)
 
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LT

Administrator
Hi x86alpha,

Welcome to the bulletin board. No offense at all taken from your statement which is a rational perspective held by most people. Essentially what you are saying is that each number (lotto ball) has exactly the same chance of being selected as any other number all the time. I think that most "lotto predictionists" (if there is such a word) would agree with nearly all of that perspective except the "all of the time" part. We know that in a perfectly balanced world that each number has the same chance of being selected as another and that in a perfect world each combination of six numbers has an equal chance of being selected as any of the other combinations. (lotto tip - the number combo 1,2,3,4,5,6 is never going to happen) But this is not a perfectly balanced world and the destiny of each individual lottery is unfolding as it should - through a series of imbalanced tends. This is called a lottery's signature. People seeking to predict the upcoming results are number hunters looking for the trends and clues for which numbers are "due" to appear in the next few draws.
I don't think that any lotto predictionist believes in a magic machine called software that once loaded with a database will cough up the next six winning numbers for the next draw. ...with the exception of WinHunter after Andrew gets it finely tuned :D
We use software programs as number management tools. What we are trying to do here is like predicting the weather (not many people can do that either:). When it starts to rain one day it might be more probable that rain should be expected the next day as well. After it has rained for a week it might be more probable that a sunny day should be expected tomorrow. We are predicting the lotto weather patterns through our analysis efforts and study of the past trends.
Now before you scoff at what I have said, please check out some of the threads for the predictions for Lotto 649. These predictions are posted "before" the draws :D You will find a multitude of accurate predictions from too many members to even mention.
Just as a couple of recent examples: for the Picks for the July 6 draw ...
http://209.151.88.182/forums/showthread.php?threadid=547
RattleSnake just selected one number - 39 ... I selected just one number - 31 ... they were both there in the winning six ! and BTW several members including myself are calling for 31 to repeat very soon. I'll bet you a million dollars .. that I don't have yet :) that 31 will be in the next few upcoming draws.
Even more interesting .. for the June 22 draw ...
http://209.151.88.182/forums/showthread.php?threadid=513
dwoods - predicted 4 winners out of set of 12 and also said number 12 and number 23 would be 2 of the six winning numbers .. they were!
Even the most entrenched rationalist has to ask himself the question .. How can that happen? :eek: Think of the odds against such predictions being correct! Well this is not magical it is simply (actually it is not simple at all - lotto number analysis can be very complex) that people have studied the lottery patterns and sometimes combined that knowledge with keen intuition.
Your question of why bother? is a good one.
The quick and obvious answer is "To win millions of dollars" but the pursuit of accurate predictions for the lottery is based upon much deeper things than just the will to win. The "why bother" is related to the type of personality that makes up a lotto predictionist.
At the risk of offending fellow members and friends I would say the following.
People that predict numbers and play the lottery are gamblers (I'm meaning that in a good way) A lotto player is the type that would rather play roulette than blackjack. We have a dream of winning big with small monetary risk placed against extremely large odds. Hopefully no lotto player bets more that they can reasonably afford. We enjoy our dreams of winning while we play. The players in this community are not greedy gamblers. They share their predictions with other members and everyone tries to help out their fellow players. I'm sure that everyone will be very happy when one of us does hit the big one. Then we'll all go to Dennis's house for a celebration party .. right Dennis ? :lol:
A lotto predictionist is also by nature an obsessive, tenacious type of individual. We go up against great odds - nearly 14 million to one, we spend hours typing in lengthy databases, we meticulously examine number patterns and we want some degree of control over our universe and outcomes. While the general population is always content with a "quick pick" the lotto predictionist plays with his/her own handcrafted numbers exercising their right to predetermine an outcome based upon their own skill.
And a major factor in why we bother is what Beaker has said .. we have fun in the pursuit of the numbers and the community in which we share our ideas, predictions etc.

We'll I'll get off my soapbox .. nuff said from me.

Again welcome and thanks for your post.
LT
 
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Beaker

Member
That's why you are running a great site LT :agree2: :agree2:
Nicely said.

Don't forget:

"...Chance favors the prepared mind ..." Louis Pasteur :agree:
 

LT

Administrator
"...Chance favors the prepared mind ..." Louis Pasteur
Very good quote Beaker :agree2:
With that perspective, I think that Louis would have fit into this group really well :D
 

dwoods99

Member
...snip... Even more interesting .. for the June 22 draw ...
http://209.151.88.182/forums/showthread.php?threadid=513
dwoods - predicted 4 winners out of set of 12 and also said number 12 and number 23 would be 2 of the six winning numbers .. they were!
Even the most entrenched rationalist has to ask himself the question .. How can that happen? :eek: Think of the odds against such predictions being correct! ...snip...
I have already admitted that 12-23 was a "gut feeling", which is nice to get when it comes true :) And when I get more, I'll share them for everyone's benefit.

x86alpha, I agree with pretty much everything LT says above, and I would like to add... The whole point of what we're doing is to reduce the odds of winning from 14 million down to better odds. This is done by eliminating numbers, and then wheeling this subset based on expenditure and potential gain.

But all in all, it's just plain fun :wavey:
 

NmbrsDude

Member
My 2¢ worth...

I also find that outsiders (as in non-predictionists or quick-pick players) think that our sole goal is to win the big one. I can only speak for myself, but I think many on this board will agree, that sometimes the better strategy is to try to win numerous small prizes and therefore cut a small profit while you wait for a larger win. To illustrate the point, if you can narrow the numbers down from 49 to 15 and you happened to get even just 4 of the 15 right, with a 100 line wheel, you could easily walk away with $200 in winnings on that draw. That's double your money. If you can start to do this consistently, you increase the fun factor plus, you're playing the lottery at a discount, to put it in a different perspective. One must remember that most prizes must be shared with other winners and therefore the amounts vary but 3 winning numbers on one line always pays $10 hard cash. All you need to do is get as many of those as possible on every draw and you're cookin'.
The bottom line is, the lottery is not where you invest the RRSP money you need for your retirement. Predictionists would spend money on the lottery anyway so, as many of my colleagues pointed out above, we want to at least take an educated guess at it instead of letting the OLC pick our numbers for us (i.e. quick-picks).

ND :)
 

Beaker

Member
Re: My 2¢ worth...

NmbrsDude said:
I also find that outsiders (as in non-predictionists or quick-pick players) think that our sole goal is to win the big one. I can only speak for myself, but I think many on this board will agree, that sometimes the better strategy is to try to win numerous small prizes and therefore cut a small profit while you wait for a larger win. The bottom line is, the lottery is not where you invest the RRSP money you need for your retirement. Predictionists would spend money on the lottery anyway so, as many of my colleagues pointed out above, we want to at least take an educated guess at it instead of letting the OLC pick our numbers for us (i.e. quick-picks).
ND :)
Precisely NDude :agree:
Ultimately I'd like to hit 6 numbers, but I will take 4 numbers a draw any day :agree2:
There are patterns, there are strategies that can be employed to lower your odds or reduce the number set. Anyone playing more than $1 a draw would do better to consider these observations.
 
originally posted by LT
I'm sure that everyone will be very happy when one of us does hit the big one. Then we'll all go to Dennis's house for a celebration party .. right Dennis ?

Sure all of you will be welcome but I can't give you my new address yet....as soon as I win the big one I'll give the directions here... And Dwoods you are right having some numbers like 2/2 (Which I achieved on numerous occasions during the course of the year) gives to all of us a better chance at winning more often and one day the big :lol: big big one...
 
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mon said:
wondered where you were. 6/49 is not the same without you Dennis;) :D
Thanks a lot for the compliments ...I'll add here that not beeing able to see all of your posts and tips and discussions made that last draw a boring one....despite the fact that 4 numbers from my favourite set hits.... :lol:
 

Goswinus

Member
Aaaaaahhhh, a non-believer :D :D

But seriously,

x86alpha said:
...
... No machine, no fuzzy logic, or the most advanced alogirthms in this world can predict the lottery. ...
This should actually be changed into:

... No machine, no fuzzy logic, or the most advanced algorithms in this world can predict a random lottery. ...

Just to make a point, I will give an example with bogus numbers and data:
- Numbers 5 and 31 came out 50 times together
- In 49 cases, the number 27 came out in the next draw

Now a question for you, x86alpha:
If 5 and 31 came out in the last draw would you include 27 in your predictions?

If yes, you would have found that this lottery is not random.
If no, you would have too much money to begin with.

We (or at list I) try to proove that a lottery can not be perfectly random when using machines and balls.

While reading your post, the image of a fish from a 1970's television series came to my mind.

Dennis, Beaker, LT and a lot of others will know what (and who) I mean. :D
 

x86alpha

Member
x86 strikes back :p

Hey again,

This is addressed to the person who attempted to compare the probability of weather to the lottery. As you probably know, we can predict the weather based solely on the evidence we gather. However, in the lottery, we do not have such fortune. For instance, if our satelites project stroms over Northern U.S. (and winds are blowing north), we can make an educated guess that Southern Canada will exprience some of that bad weather. In the lottery, the number drawn on Wednesday (for expample) have nothing to do with the numbers being drawn on Saturday.

If you do see any patterns, than I must argue that there is something wrong with the mechanism that projects these lottery numbers. The six numbers drawn on Wedensday, have the seem chances of being drawn on Satudrday - it is a proven fact.

The equation which gives you the odds is a simple permutation - and you cannot argue with that. So, by saying this, and assuming you approach this subject from a rational perspective, HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT ANY OF THESE 6 NUMBERS ARE PERDICTABLE?
 

Beaker

Member
Re: x86 strikes back :p

x86alpha said:
Hey again,
HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT ANY OF THESE 6 NUMBERS ARE PERDICTABLE?
There are many, many accurate predictions I could make about the lotto with an extreme degree of confidence :agree: True, any prediction has the chance of hitting but I would gamble it won't.
Stick around x86 and we'll show you some great lotto forecasts. :lol: People on these boards have some great instincts which, from a rational perspective, you wouldn't understand.

It's a gamble X86 - no question and the odds of hitting 6 numbers are high.
But the odds of hitting 3 or 4, while high, are much better and in this game reduction of the odds is key.
Now for July 13, 6/49 play the 12 :agree2: :lol: :lol: :wavey:
 

winhunter

Member
Re: x86 strikes back :p

x86alpha said:
Hey again,

This is addressed to the person who attempted to compare the probability of weather to the lottery. As you probably know, we can predict the weather based solely on the evidence we gather. .....

HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT ANY OF THESE 6 NUMBERS ARE PERDICTABLE?

You are justified in what you say, but here is a thought....

WE predict the weather based on the concept of fluid dynamics, air pressure, thermal whatever, etc. etc. There are laws governing the general priciples of wether formation.... Such as the simple fact that the Earth is round.

Now, for lottery prediction. The machines are all designed the same, the balls are all loaded the same way, and all the balls are supposed to weigh approximately the same. Also, the general environment the machines are in is kept within a range of temp/humidity (I mean it isnt 200 degrees F!) and lastly, the balls are always drawn a certain way, within a certain time period.

Given the above observations, why would you not assume that some type of predictable "signature" is possible? Afterall, we can predict the wether to some degree of accuracy... *What does 10% chance of rain mean anyway???*


BTW, a man from California bought a $200+ software package called a neural network. He configured it in such a way as to allow it to input the California Fantasy 5 lottery history and learn it. It was able to predict successfully SEVERAL times (5/39.) Now, neaural networks are designed to take a meaningless set of data and find the patterns. Do you think it found a pattern? What criteria does a software package have to meet in order to qualify as a good package (predicting, or wheeling?) What standards do you hold your weather man to? :D

Most software that exists today generally has one purpose, that is to reduce the odds to a more acceptible level to make playing the lottery more affordable, and profitable. I have found the tighter I make my prediction envelope (predict 8 numbers out of 53) that most software tends to not always predict any/some/all of the winning numbers. That is to be expected. The odds are still against us.

I myself make no claims that WINHunter will predict the lottery, but that doesn't mean that it can't!;)



Andrew
 

aaa_2500

Member
I smell a rat!

x86alpha sounds like a man with a mission... When I read his posts, I get the feeling that he already knows what the answer is, or that he really doesn't care, because whatever the answer is, it will only lead him to the next line in his script...

Maybe I am just paranoid, but he doesn't strike me as the curious type... More like the type who will start a crusade!

All of this from just reading 2 of his posts ;) ... Well, x86alpha... Tell us why You went through the trouble of joining this forum, when You are obviously not interested in devising a strategy to win the lottery? What is Your motive?
 

Brad

Member
Good observation aaa_250,

Don't think you're paranoid at all. I'll make a prediction here that my reply has a better than 50/50 chance of being followed by an insult from a pretender. Be it animal, vegetable, domestic, alien or ... could it be x86alpha? Whatever IT is lottery discussion is not it's priority.

Cheers
 
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